🔗 Share this article

Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.